Capital Increase·2026-05-19

SOCAR Amends Listing Date for Capital Increase

SOC

쏘카

403550

+0.05

Financial Impact

NEUTRAL

Historical Market Reaction

Based on n=2,429 similar Capital Increase events

Historically strongest in Large Cap stocks during Bull Market conditions.

Large-cap favorableBull market biasAvoid high volatility

Grade C

How we grade signals

Score = risk-adjusted return (median 5D ÷ volatility, Sharpe-style), scaled by sample confidence (n/300, max 40% boost).

A ≥ 75Strong positive signalB 60–74Moderate positive signalC 45–59Neutral / inconclusiveD 30–44Weak or mixed signalF < 30Negative signal

Grade reflects risk-adjusted consistency, not absolute return size. A lower-return but stable event type may outgrade a high-variance one.

Hit Rate

5D Hit Rate

57.2%

stocks positive after 5 days

20D Hit Rate

58.5%

stocks positive after 20 days

Alpha vs Benchmark

(KOSPI / KOSDAQ)

Alpha 5D

-0.5%

trimmed avg vs index

Alpha 20D

+1.9%

median -1.0%

Trimmed alpha excludes extreme outlier events (top/bottom 5%) to better represent typical market behavior.

20D Return Distribution

Beats market (α > 0)48.4%

Return > +5%50.2%

Return < −10%23.3%

Range (worst / best)-70.0% / +472.3%

Avg entry return (next-open → 5D close)+2.8%

By Market Cap

Large Cap

> ₩1T mktcap

Hit Rate

62.3%/ 75.0%

5D / 20D

Alpha 20D

+10.3%

trimmed avg

n=605

Mid Cap

₩100B–₩1T

Hit Rate

57.3%/ 46.9%

5D / 20D

Alpha 20D

+1.1%

trimmed avg

n=143

Small Cap

< ₩100B mktcap

Hit Rate

55.1%/ 51.4%

5D / 20D

Alpha 20D

-2.5%

trimmed avg

n=1,481

Market cap buckets: Large > ₩1T · Mid ₩100B–₩1T · Small < ₩100B (at time of filing). Min. 30 events per bucket shown.

By Market Regime

(KOSPI 20D prior trend)

Bull Market

KOSPI 20D > +5%

Hit Rate

57.4%/ 61.5%

5D / 20D

Alpha 20D

+3.3%

trimmed avg

n=1,897

Neutral

KOSPI 20D ±5%

Hit Rate

56.9%/ 40.7%

5D / 20D

Alpha 20D

-6.7%

trimmed avg

n=320

By Volatility Regime

(KOSPI 20D rolling std)

High Vol

KOSPI 20D std > 1.2%

Hit Rate

50.6%/ 44.5%

5D / 20D

Alpha 20D

-3.9%

trimmed avg

n=1,388

Normal Vol

0.6%–1.2%

Hit Rate

68.0%/ 73.2%

5D / 20D

Alpha 20D

+8.4%

trimmed avg

n=841

Avg max drawdown-14.2%

Based on DART filings since Jan 2025. Past market reactions do not guarantee future results.

Signal grade: risk-adjusted return (median 5D ÷ vol, Sharpe-style) × sample confidence — A≥75 / B≥60 / C≥45 / D≥30. Click the grade badge for details.

AI Summary

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Key Numbers

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Risk Factors

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AI-processed analysis. Based on: [Amendment] Material Fact Report (Decision on Paid-in Capital Increase). Source: Financial Supervisory Service (금융감독원 전자공시시스템). Raw government data is not redistributed. Not investment advice.

Signal Strength

3Neutral

WeakStrong

AI Score: +0.05·Impact: LOW